💸 Wake Me Up When September Ends

Issue 82 - Good Morning and Happy Tuesday.

The winds are shifting in the mortgage markets, and we need to adjust our sails to catch the tailwind.

This week’s newsletter examines the major factors contributing to the upcoming September Fed rate cut, when it will happen, what it means for mortgage rates, and an article you can share with your clients.

Details on joining the exclusive Monday Morning 💸 Sneak Peek list are below today’s rates.

If you’re enjoying GTG Weekly, please share it with someone else you think would enjoy it!

🪖See you in the trenches

CLIENT ADVICE
Should We Wait For September?

🔮 The most-asked question in the last 2 ½ years. “When do you think rates are coming down?”

🍹 My frequent answer has been, “If I knew that, I would be on a beach somewhere with a fruity drink in my hand.”

It usually gets a laugh and snaps everyone back to the reality that “I don’t know either!” But now, we have hope. We have the wind blowing in our direction.

Let’s discuss why rates are so high, what factors we have in our favor, when we think the rates will drop, and what we need to look for.

Read the full article here…

PERSONAL
Family Camping Trip

So why wasn’t there a newsletter last week?? We took off from Monday through Thursday and stayed at Casini Ranch on the Russian River.

The kids had a blast. A first night SNAFU had us scrambling to transfer food from our small trailer fridge to a cooler. The internal battery on my power station failed (which I now have troubleshot and have a replacement ordered).

As a result, we also lost onboard water, and lighting, so we roughed it and “tent camped” the old-fashioned way. It was still fun!

Great memories and family fun.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 July 23rd, 2024

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

• Rate Markets: What you need to know:

  The last three weeks have seen trends in the right direction. There are a few bumps here and there (like Thursday through today), but everything is lining up for a Fed Rate cut in September.
  
  We will see the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report on Friday. This is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation and could be the last push needed to solidify rate cuts shortly. Watch for market movement as a result.

• Bottom Line: Same as last week. TREAD LIGHTLY. Multiple people have contacted us, saying, “We’ve read that rates are down.” The mainstream media is delayed in terms of live rate market movements.
  
  As you can see from rates this morning, they were down mid-last week but have snapped back to levels from two weeks ago. Honestly, these are not bad, but they are not what people are expecting when seeing delayed news about this great drop in rates.

Share GTG Weekly with colleagues and earn access to exclusive Monday morning rate updates directly to your inbox. Stay ahead of the curve!

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TECHNICALS
Builders Down Bad

In a not-so-surprising development, builder sentiment and SFR starts (meaning new homes are being “started”) are lower monthly. Rates are the root cause.

Lower inflation (covered in last week’s technicals), higher unemployment readings, and a slowing economy all signal to Jerome Powell that “it’s time” to cut rates. It's likely to happen in September.

What to tell your clients: Help is on the way in the form of rate cuts, but not so much in construction inventory. This means we’re back in the familiar dance of “Should I wait for rates…”

Read the full article here…

TOOLS
HomeIQ - 75+% Open Rate!

Realtors, are you giving your clients a monthly snapshot of their home value? I have used HomeBot and similar tools in the past and can say that HomeIQ is the best I’ve seen so far.

We send out hundreds of these every month, all automated, and are currently getting a 78% open rate.