Issue 126 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

A little late today, but we are back!

Last Friday’s jobs report was the kind of “bad news is good news” moment the mortgage world loves. The numbers came in softer than expected, showing the labor market is losing some steam.

That gave investors reason to believe the Fed might actually cut rates next month, and mortgage rates responded by dipping on the 8th. It’s a reminder that in this market, one report can flip the rate conversation overnight.

Personal Note:

Why was there no Newsletter last week? We had a wonderful time camping on the Russian River! 75-80 degrees, surprisingly no mosquitoes and great family time.

Those of you who have been reading GTG Weekly for a while might remember last year’s disaster when I failed to properly op-check our trailer battery and arrived at the campground dead. No water pump, no fridge, anything. Might not sound like that big a deal, but when your base camp is planned around having hot/cold water, a refrigerator, and ambient light from an overland trailer… it can undoubtedly be a monkey wrench.

This year was a great success. We tested and retested all systems, and we really enjoyed our time because we had a plan and executed it!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Move down after jobs report.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Homes still appreciating, but at a slower pace.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 August 12th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📈 Unemployment Claims Hit 4-Year High
Continuing jobless claims—the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits—climbed to 1.974 million, the highest since late 2021. This marks 11 straight weeks above 1.9 million, signaling a softer labor market. The Fed is watching closely: persistent weakness could push them toward cutting rates at their September 17 meeting, especially if upcoming inflation data also cools.

🔍 All Eyes on Inflation This Week
July’s Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday) will set the tone for rate expectations. Cooler inflation numbers could help extend recent mortgage rate improvements, while hotter readings may stall or reverse them.

🔑 Realtor Insight
For buyers, the combination of steady home appreciation and a potentially softer job market is a double-edged sword—waiting could mean catching a lower rate if the Fed cuts, but also paying more for the same home in the future. Now is the time to help clients weigh the cost of “waiting” versus locking in today.

TECHNICALS

Housing’s Still Winning… Even as Job Losses Mount

📈 Home Prices: Still Climbing, Just Slower

Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows:

• 📊 +0.1% from May to June

• 📊 +1.7% year-over-year

• 🔮 Forecast: +0.5% in July and +4.2% over the next 12 months

Even with the slower pace compared to recent years, appreciation remains steady.
💡 Example: A $500,000 home appreciating at 4% gains $20,000 in value in just one year.

Realtor Insight:
This is still a “buy now, benefit later” market. Even moderate appreciation builds equity faster than most savings accounts or investments.

📉 Jobless Claims Hit 4-Year High

• 🆙 Initial claims: +7,000 to 226,000 (above forecasts)

• 🚩 Continuing claims: +38,000 to 1.974M — highest since Nov 2021

• 📅 Above 1.9M for 11 straight weeks

The Fed is watching closely. Weakening jobs data could push them to cut rates at the September 17 meeting—if inflation doesn’t get in the way.

Realtor Insight:
Signs of a softer job market could mean lower mortgage rates ahead, but it’s a balancing act—higher inflation could stall those cuts. Watch the next CPI report.

🔍 What’s Coming This Week

• Tuesday: July Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) + Weekly Jobless Claims

• Friday: July Retail Sales

Realtor Insight:
These reports are rate movers. Share the update with your buyers—locking before a volatile week could save them money.