Issue 161 - Hello and Happy Tuesday,

Weak Jobs, Stronger Prices

If your buyers assume the whole economy is cooling at once, walk them through last week's numbers. They are more mixed than the headlines suggest.

June payrolls added just 57,000 jobs, well short of the 110,000 forecast. April and May were also revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Full-time employment actually fell by 514,000, while part-time work slipped by another 53,000. Unemployment did dip from 4.3% to 4.2%, but not because more people found jobs. It dropped mainly because 720,000 workers left the labor force and stopped being counted at all.

ADP's report told a similar story. Private employers added 98,000 jobs, below the roughly 110,000 expected, and about half of that hiring came from one place: education and health services. Most other industries barely moved.

Here is why this matters for your buyers. A soft jobs report like this would normally be the kind of news that pulls rates lower, since it raises hope the Fed has room to cut. But the Fed has turned more cautious, and the market is not pricing in cuts the way it once did. Wednesday's release of the Fed's meeting minutes could tell us how much patience is left at the table, and that is the number most likely to move mortgage rates this week.

Tell your buyers to watch Wednesday, not last week's headlines.

Personal Note:

Saturday was, of course, the 4th of July. We hosted a block party near our house and had a great showing of neighbors. Good food, fantastic weather and a fun time!

TLDR (Too Long Didn't Read) Summary

• 📉 RATES - Soft jobs report didn't move the rate sheet. Wednesday's Fed minutes are the next signal.

• 📈 TECHNICALS - Hiring missed the mark, but home prices kept climbing anyway.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 July 7th, 2026

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⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📊 Let's be straight. Rates ticked up last week, not down. The bond market sold off Tuesday and never gave it back, even after a weak jobs report on Thursday. We're in a "one step back" week.

📘 Here's the part that explains it. Every month the government counts how many job openings companies have. Tuesday's count came in bigger than expected, the most in two years. Bond investors read that as a strong job market, and a strong job market gives the Fed room to keep rates higher for longer. So bonds sold off, and mortgage rates tend to follow bonds higher.

⚠️ Now the honest part. That "strong" openings number had some air in it. Remote jobs get posted in more than one city and get counted more than once. World Cup hiring gave hotels and restaurants a temporary boost that won't last. Rates moved on a headline that was softer than it looked once you dug in.

🔑 Realtor Insight: This is the market being jumpy, not the market changing direction. Nothing has shifted at the closing table. Anyone telling your clients rates are about to drop or spike hasn't looked past the headline.

🗓️ What to watch this week:

• Wednesday: Fed meeting minutes. Could move markets if they hint at the Fed's next step.

• Thursday: Existing home sales and weekly jobless claims.

It's a quieter week on the data front. That's actually the story. After last week's whiplash, calm is the win.

TECHNICALS
Weak Jobs, Stronger Prices

June's jobs report was one of the softest in months. At the very same time, home prices kept climbing. Two forces pulling in opposite directions, and together they tell you where this market really stands heading into the second half of the year.

Here is what each side is telling you.

Force One: Hiring Fell Short

Job growth missed across the board in June.

• 📉 Payrolls added just 57,000 jobs, well below the 110,000 forecast

• 📅 April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs

• 😟 Full-time employment fell by 514,000, while part-time work dropped another 53,000

Force Two: Home Prices Didn't Blink

Here is the part that does not match the hiring headlines. Home values kept moving higher.

• 📈 Case-Shiller showed prices up 0.8% in April, after a 0.7% gain in March

• 🏠 FHFA data showed a combined 2.6% gain over February through April, and a 2.0% year-over-year gain on conventional loans

• 📊 A $500,000 home appreciating at that pace gains roughly $10,000 to $20,000 in value over a year

Why the Disconnect Matters

When hiring slows this much, buyers often expect prices to follow. They have not. Finished, move-in-ready inventory is still tight enough that softer job growth alone has not been enough to cool price appreciation. The buyer waiting for a downturn that a soft jobs report will not deliver is the same buyer who keeps renting while a long-term owner quietly builds equity. That is worth saying out loud to anyone sitting on the fence.

👀 Watch this: Wednesday's Fed meeting minutes and Thursday's existing home sales report are the next two data points. If the Fed sounds more open to cuts and existing sales hold up, that is the combination that could finally put both a rate move and a price move in the same direction.