Issue 152 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Two weeks in a row, the headline looked scary. Two weeks in a row, rates held their ground.

Last week it was a jobs report that appeared to show the economy roaring back. Turned out most of the gains were healthcare workers returning from a strike, not new hiring. This week, a fresh inflation reading landed that looked alarming at first glance. And even a market that loves a good overreaction couldn't quite get there on this one.

When the data gets picked apart, the story underneath keeps coming back to the same thing: oil prices, a conflict overseas, and a lot of noise that doesn't change the fundamentals. The headline is loud. The actual impact on your clients? A lot more manageable.

Two weeks of scary numbers. Two weeks of rates holding. We'll break down why below, and what to watch for next.

Personal Note:

We were able to repair the wheel bearing on the VW, but not in time for the car rally on Saturday. Turns out it was raining, so likely was not all that fun anyway. LOTs of learning for the boys.

Torque specs, new tools to use, brake bleeding etc. Very fun for all of us. Also happy to report that we were able to operationally check everything we worked on Sunday and we are good to go!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Slight trend down.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Inflation was understandably high with oil prices.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 14th, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📊 Prices went up, and that affects your buyers. The government tracks how much things cost every month. In March, prices jumped more than expected, mostly because gas and fuel got a lot more expensive. When prices go up like that, mortgage rates tend to stay high or move higher.

🛢️ Why gas prices matter for mortgages. It sounds weird, but they are connected. When gas gets expensive, everything gets more expensive. When everything gets more expensive, the people who set interest rates get nervous and keep borrowing costs high to slow things down.

🏦 The Fed is in a holding pattern. The Federal Reserve is like the referee of the economy. Right now they are not cutting rates, and some of them are even talking about raising rates again if prices do not cool off. That means your buyers should not count on rates dropping soon.

What to watch this week

Several economic reports drop this week that could move rates in either direction. Monday brings Existing Home Sales data.

• Tuesday is the PPI, the Producer Price Index, which tracks what businesses pay for goods before they hit store shelves. Think of it as an early warning signal for future inflation.

• Thursday brings the latest jobless claims. Any surprise in these numbers can shift mortgage rates quickly.

Realtor Insight: Rates are still elevated, but waiting for a big drop is a gamble. Home prices are projected to climb nearly 5% over the next year. Your buyers are better off locking in a home now than holding out for a rate that may not come.

TECHNICALS
The Bond Market Is at a Critical Level. Here's What That Means for Rates.

Mortgage rates follow the bond market. When bond prices rise, rates fall. When they drop, rates go up. Right now, bonds are sitting right on a key floor that the market has been defending.

• 📊 Mortgage bonds are testing a critical support level that traders watch closely

• ⚠️ If bonds fall through that floor, mortgage rates could push higher

• 🛢️ Middle East tensions and oil prices are the biggest wildcard, not domestic economic data

Prices went up in March, and you probably felt it at the gas pump. Inflation rose to 3.3% year over year, but almost all of that increase came from higher fuel costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East. It wasn't a sign the broader economy is overheating.

When you strip out gas and food, the remaining inflation number stayed much calmer at 2.6%. This is more of a gas station problem than an everything problem.

The Federal Reserve has been holding interest rates steady since cutting three times late last year. They're not rushing to cut again with inflation still above their target, and a small but growing number of officials have even floated the idea of raising rates if prices stay stubborn. Not the most likely outcome, but worth knowing.

Home prices are projected to rise 3.6% over the next 12 months. On a $750,000 home, that's roughly $27,000 in equity growth just from appreciation. For anyone on the fence about buying, that's a real conversation starter.

This week brings fresh data on home sales, homebuilder confidence, and wholesale prices. The housing numbers will tell us whether buyers are staying active despite the noise. Watch those closely.