Issue 115 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

We saw some really solid movement in rates last week—things were trending in the right direction. But after markets reopened on Monday (following Friday’s closure), things turned quickly and not in our favor. We’re now drifting back into that mid-to-high 6% range.

It’s critical to help buyers understand: yes, a lower rate would be great, but if the payment works today, they shouldn’t wait. If the numbers make sense, it’s time to act—whether they’re buying their dream home or locking in an investment goal.

Personal Note:

It was Easter weekend, of course. Cars and Coffee on Saturday, some egg dying, some egg hunts, and enjoying the weather.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Good movement last week, but started to unwind again yesterday.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Powell throws cold water on rate talks.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 22nd, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Last week, rates were stuck — even though the stock market was struggling. But now we’re finally seeing some signs of improvement. Here’s what’s driving it:

🧊 Calmer Bond Market
The bond market has settled down a bit. That’s helping rates ease off recent highs.

💵 Dollar Concerns Overblown
There was panic about the U.S. dollar losing its global power, but new data shows it's still the world’s top reserve currency by a long shot. That helped calm investor nerves.

📉 Signs of a Slowing Economy
Big-picture data (like shrinking money supply and weak GDP forecasts) is pointing to a possible slowdown. When the economy cools, rates usually follow.

📆 What’s Next?
The Fed meets May 7. If growth keeps slowing, they may start talking rate cuts — which could bring even better news for mortgage rates down the road.

TECHNICALS
Rates in Limbo, Builders Back Off

Tariff fears and Fed speak stirred up the markets last week. Here's what matters for your buyers and sellers:

• 🧠 Fed Focus: Inflation > Jobs

  Powell made it clear: Controlling inflation comes before supporting the job market.
  📌 Translation: Rate cuts aren't coming until inflation cools significantly.

  👉 Realtor Takeaway: Don’t bank on lower rates soon—urgency matters.

• 🛒 Retail Sales Spiked—But It’s Likely Temporary

  March sales jumped 1.4%, led by car buying before tariffs hit.
  📉 Core spending missed expectations.

  👉 Realtor Takeaway: Future consumer data may soften—could help rates later.

• 🏗️ Builders Are Pumping the Brakes

  Housing starts dropped 11.4%—worst in a year. Confidence is low, especially on future sales.

  👉 Realtor Takeaway: Inventory stays tight. Prices remain supported.

• 👷‍♂️ Jobs: Fewer Layoffs, Longer Unemployment

  New jobless claims hit a low… but continuing claims keep rising.

  👉 Realtor Takeaway: The labor market is wobbling—buyer sentiment may shift.

🔭 What to Watch This Week

📅 Wed: New Home Sales
📅 Thurs: Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims

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