Issue 121 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Fed paused yet again at 4.25–4.5%, for the Fed Funds Rate (not mortgage rates!) and there’s chatter that Powell’s decision might not be purely economic.

His term ends in May 2026, and some insiders suggest that politics may be at play, which the Fed is NOT supposed to be influenced by.

All signs point to the fact that we should have had a cut by now, but they (the Fed) is staying put.

If he steps aside, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is rumored as a top candidate to take the reins, and that could flip the script on rates and policy direction.

Personal Note:
Last week, for the first time, in a REALLY long time, I legitimately just FORGOT to create and post the newsletter, lol.

There have been plenty of weeks that I knew it wasn’t gonna happen for one reason or another, but this time, I just blanked!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Slight downward movement

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Fed continues rate cut pause

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 June 24th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📉 Rates dipped, but gains are limited
Conventional and jumbo rates improved by 0.125%, offering a small break. But technical resistance in the bond market is keeping mortgage rates from dropping further.

🌍 Middle East conflict could impact markets
New U.S. airstrikes in Iran raise the risk of oil disruptions. If uncertainty continues, we could see more money move into bonds, which helps rates temporarily.

🏡 More homes, but buyers are holding back
Inventory is rising, yet sales remain weak. There’s clear pent-up demand, but many buyers are waiting for a bigger rate drop that hasn’t come yet.

📅 All eyes on jobs and consumer spending
With inflation cooling, the next major driver will be economic growth. A soft jobs report or weaker consumer data could finally pull rates lower.

🔎 Realtor Insight:

Inventory is loosening and rates nudged down, but the window isn’t wide open. Now’s the time to push pre-approved buyers to act before momentum stalls again.

TECHNICALS

Fed Hits Pause Again

The Fed held interest rates steady last week at 4.25%–4.5%, marking six months of no movement. With inflation still sticky and the job market starting to show cracks, they’re keeping a cautious stance. Despite economic softness, they still project two rate cuts later this year.

📉 Why This Matters for Buyers & Sellers:
Even though the Fed isn’t cutting yet, mortgage rates could move lower later in the year — especially if economic data continues to weaken.

🔍 Realtor Insight:
Use this stability to prep your buyers: we’re in a “wait and see” window. If rates dip later, those pre-approved now will be ready to act.

🏗️ Builder Confidence Continues to Slide

Homebuilder confidence dropped again in June, falling to 32 on the NAHB index — the third-lowest reading since 2012. High interest rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty are keeping builders on edge.

📉 All components fell:

• 🚪 Buyer traffic: 21

• 🏠 Current sales: 35

• 🔮 Future expectations: 40

🔍 Realtor Insight:
New construction options could be limited. If you have buyers open to older homes or fixer-uppers, this is a great time to explore resale inventory.

📈 Jobless Claims Still Elevated

Initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 245,000, but continuing claims remain near 1.95 million — one of the highest levels since 2022.

⏳ Translation:
More folks are staying unemployed longer, which points to a cooling job market.

🔍 Realtor Insight:
If employment trends worsen, mortgage rates may ease. For now, coach clients not to delay if they’re ready — because timing the bottom rarely works.

🔮 What’s Coming This Week?

📅 Key Reports to Watch:

• 📈 Home Price Index – Tuesday

• 🏡 Existing Home Sales – Monday

• 🚧 New & Pending Home Sales – Wed/Thurs

• 📉 Jobless Claims + Q1 GDP revision – Thursday

• 💰 PCE Inflation Report – Friday (This one’s the Fed’s favorite!)

🔍 Realtor Insight:
Friday’s inflation report is a biggie. A softer number could be the green light markets need to push rates lower.