Issue 146 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Having a Monday holiday last week + a rate movement had me scrambling and kept me from getting the newsletter out! We are back now!!

Rates finally moved lower.

Not because everything looks perfect, but because the bond market is starting to believe growth is slowing and inflation is no longer re-accelerating. After weeks of volatility and delayed data, we got enough clarity for money to move back into bonds, and that helped mortgage rates improve.

For buyers who have been waiting for some relief, this is the first real shift in tone we’ve seen in a bit. Now comes the real question: which buyers will “pocket” the perceived savings and which will use this leverage to increase the offer price to WIN the deal (more on that in the rates section!).

Personal Note:
Valentine's Day, Jamie and I got out for a car rally that ran from a winery in Calistoga to a midway point of Hopland and then ended at another winery in Healdsburg.

Great people and really fun times. Ended up stopping by a few other favorites while in Dry Creek before returning home that afternoon.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Touching high 5’s

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Delayed data adds fuel to the fire.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 24th, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📉 Rates Have Improved
Mortgage bonds have been trending better, which has pushed rates down from recent highs. That is real movement, not sideways noise.

We are entering the DANGER ZONE for buyers who sit back and want to absorb the monthly “savings”.

🗣️ Fed Tone Is Softening
Governor Waller signaled:

• January job strength may be overstated

• Underlying inflation may already be near 2 percent

• One strong labor report does not equal a strong labor market

That is supportive for lower rates over time.

Realtor Takeaway

The direction is improving.
The question now is momentum.

If bonds break through resistance, pricing sheets improve again.
If not, we consolidate before the next move.

TECHNICALS
Delayed Housing, Inflation and GDP Data Released

A wave of delayed data finally hit after the government shutdown. We got updates on inflation, housing, GDP and jobs all at once.

Here’s what actually matters for your buyers and sellers 👇

📈 PCE Inflation Came in Hotter Than Expected

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

• 📊 Headline PCE: +0.4% for the month, 2.9% annually

• 📊 Core PCE (no food & energy): +0.4% for the month, 3.0% annually

• 🎥 Streaming services jumped 19.5% in December

What this means:

• 🏦 Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target

• ⏳ That makes immediate rate cuts less likely

• ⚖️ The Fed is balancing sticky inflation vs a cooling labor market

Chair Jerome Powell continues to emphasize caution. No clear path without tradeoffs.

📌 Realtor Insight:
If inflation refuses to cool, mortgage rates may struggle to move meaningfully lower. Buyers waiting for a dramatic drop could be disappointed unless upcoming data softens.

🌧️ Weather Slowed Existing Home Contracts

Pending Home Sales (signed contracts on existing homes) fell:

• 📉 -0.8% month over month

• 📉 -0.4% year over year

• 🌨️ Storms hit the South and Northeast hardest

• 🌴 West and Midwest actually saw gains

According to National Association of REALTORS Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, lower mortgage rates could bring 550,000 additional buyers into the market this year.

The issue?

More buyers + limited supply = price pressure.

📌 Realtor Insight:
If rates dip even modestly, buyer demand could snap back quickly. If inventory does not expand at the same pace, expect renewed competition.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 🏠 Home price data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

• 🏡 FHFA home price update

• 🧾 Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday

• 💼 Weekly jobless claims

Wholesale inflation from PPI will be especially important. If that comes in cool, bonds could rally.