💸 Rate Roller Coaster

Issue 84 - Good Morning and Happy Tuesday.

This week's edition is shorter. Yesterday was one of those Mondays, and the day got away!

What you need to know in 30 seconds: Rates make one of the biggest movements downward of the year, but only for a few hours. On a $700,000 loan (75% LTV, 780 FICO), the .750% drop that happened Friday afternoon and held early Monday morning was the equivalent of $350 of lower monthly payment or $50,000 more purchasing power!

Reports (BLS Jobs) confirmed market bias that a rate cut is imminent. Lenders reacted to the falling bond market by aggressively cutting their rates to stay competitive and not miss out on fresh business or brokers breaking locks to move deals.

Monday, the ISM report came out and put a halt to weak employment fears. Lenders were very quick to ratchet the rates back up to avoid losses by being exposed as the bond market rallied. Oh, and don't check your 401k unless you like pain.

Check below where rates are sitting this morning.

Personal note: The kids have loved spending some Summer time with their Grandparents. So Jamie and I have maximized our time together and had a few dates in the past week. It has been great!

Don’t wish you had seen those rates yesterday morning?! Details on joining the exclusive Monday Morning 💸 Sneak Peek list are above today’s rates.

🪖 See you in the trenches.

Share GTG Weekly with colleagues and earn access to exclusive Monday morning rate updates directly to your inbox. Stay ahead of the curve!

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 August 6th, 2024

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

• 🎢 Building a Roller Coaster:  We saw a .750% DROP Friday afternoon and through Monday in the AM. Then, the market gave a chunk back.
  

• Friday - The Jobs report showed less than expected job growth, showing the Fed is behind the curve. As a result, the market is baking in even more certainty about a .25% —.50% September rate cut.

• Saturday & Sunday -

  • News Breaks, Buffett Sells off 50% of BH’s Apple Holdings

  • Japanese stock market freefalls 12.4%

• Late Monday morning - ISM Services report showed stronger-than-expected employment data, which eased concerns about labor market weakness. This unexpected strength led to a rise in yields and caused mortgage bonds to lose their recent gains, reducing the urgency for a potential Fed rate cut.
  

  

  South Park - via Tenor

• Bottom Line: Mortgage rates move based on what the Fed says and what the markets anticipate they will eventually do, not what the Fed does. Yes, rates are coming down, but this will not be a linear movement. There will be ⬆️ ups and ⬇️ downs along the way.

TECHNICALS
Jobs Down, Unemployment Up

We’re finally seeing substantial rate movement downward with the slew of last week’s news hitting the markets. The market is fully embracing the upcoming rate cuts. Now the question is, will the Fed wait until September? Will it be .25% or .50%, and will there be a follow-up cut in November?

📰 Last Week's Headlines:

• 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady: Rate cut in September inevitable.

• 📉 Weak Jobs Report: Job growth slowed, unemployment up; may impact housing demand.

• 👔 Private Payrolls Drop: Fewer jobs added, small businesses struggling; may reduce wage pressure.

• 🔍 Labor Market Weakness: Job openings down, unemployment claims up; Fed may cut rates.

• 🏠 Home Prices Hit Record: Prices continue rising; real estate remains a strong investment.

• 📈 Pending Home Sales Surge: Higher sales in June; inventory rise benefits buyers.

• 🔮 Upcoming Focus: Watch Jobless Claims data on Thursday.

• 📊 Market Outlook: Mortgage rates may drop as bond yields fall.

EVENT
August Appraisal Rundown

Join Us for an Exclusive Training Session!

We are thrilled to host an exclusive event at our office featuring a special guest speaker, Rob Roldan, a VP from Class Valuation, a leading Appraisal Management Company (AMC). This is a must-attend session for Realtors looking to enhance their appraisal knowledge and skills.

Key Topics Covered:

🔹 Challenging Property Value: Dos and Don'ts

• Learn effective strategies to contest property appraisals confidently and correctly.

🔹 What Appraisers Want: Insights for Listing and Buyers Agents

• Discover what appraisers expect from you to ensure smooth and accurate appraisals.

🔹 Navigating Tax Records vs. Actual Property Details

• Gain expertise in handling discrepancies in bed and bath counts between tax records and actual properties.

🔹 Common Misconceptions: Avoiding Pitfalls with AMCs

• Uncover the common mistakes that can lead to trouble with AMCs and how to avoid them.

🔹 FHA/VA Appraisals: Key Watchouts

• Learn the critical elements to monitor in FHA/VA appraisals to prevent issues.

Why Attend?

• Gain Valuable Insights: Directly from a top industry professional.

• Network with Peers: Connect with fellow Realtors and expand your professional network.

• Enhance Your Skills: Improve your appraisal knowledge to better serve your clients.

• Free Food: You read that right.

Event Details:

• Date: Thursday, August 29th

• Time: 1:00 PM

• Location: 1421 Guerneville Road, Suite 100. Santa Rosa, CA 95403

Reserve Your Spot Today!

Spaces are limited, and we expect high demand. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn from one of the best in the industry. Sign up now to secure your spot!