💸 Open For Business

Issue 136 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

The government is finally reopened, at least for now. Most agencies are funded into early next year, which means all the economic data that was paused will start flowing again. That alone should help bring a little more clarity to where rates may head next.

At the same time, we’re moving into the slow season. Glass half full, buyers get a calmer window with less competition and more negotiating room. Glass half empty, this is typically when listing inventory drops, which can make it harder for buyers who need options.

Either way, the reopening removes one layer of uncertainty, and the next wave of data will likely shape how we close out the year.

Personal Note:
Celebrated the Marine Corps' 250th birthday on Monday, the 10th, with a fellow Marine. Great steak dinner and even better company. Had a wonderful mid-week holiday for Veterans Day, the 11th. Then JJ went to a birthday party over the weekend, got sick a few days later, and passed it to Jamie. The circle of life continues. Shocker, LOL.

The day after tomorrow, we are headed to Calistoga for a long weekend to celebrate Jamie’s 40th birthday. Will have some great pics to share, but in the meantime, I’ll see you all in the trenches!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Still stable.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Open for business.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 November 18th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📉 Rates have held steady
For almost two weeks, mortgage rates have bounced in a tight 12 to 16 bps range. After months of volatility, this kind of calm is a gift. Stable rates help buyers lock without fear of a sudden spike and give sellers more predictable demand.

🧑‍💼 Labor market weakness is helping
Recent job data continues to cool. ADP showed job losses, unemployment is creeping higher, and multiple surveys say layoffs are rising. Weak labor data typically supports lower bond yields, which helps mortgage rates.

📊 The Fed is watching the data closely
Several Fed officials have hinted that cuts are still on the table as long as inflation keeps sliding and the labor market softens. If upcoming reports confirm that trend, the market could price in more cuts, giving rates room to drift lower.

🏠 What this means for your buyers and sellers
Stable rates + softer economic data = a window of opportunity. Buyers can plan with more confidence, and sellers benefit from steady demand instead of stop-and-go activity tied to rate spikes.

TECHNICALS
Back in Business

🕒 Data flow is back online. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and other agencies restarting their economic reports, the market will soon receive fresh readings on jobs, inflation, consumer spending and more. The long pause during the shutdown left a big gap.

📉 Rates could move quickly. Because these reports influence how the Federal Reserve (Fed) and markets assess economic strength, getting new numbers can send mortgage‐rates up or down depending on whether the data is “better than expected” or “worse than expected.” The shutdown delayed official data and increased uncertainty.

🏠 Real‐estate ripple effect: buyers and sellers should stay alert.

• For buyers: a favorable wage or inflation report could raise rates somewhat, reducing how much home you can comfortably afford. If you're preapproving today, build in a buffer.

• For sellers: stable or improving rates support home‐value stability; if rates jump, buyers’ budgets shrink, which could reduce offers or elongate sale timelines.

• For agents: messaging matters — let clients know the “quiet” may end quickly once the reports start streaming in.

🗓 Timing is key. The reopening doesn’t mean the data backlog is instantly resolved. Some reports are permanently lost or delayed, which means surprises remain likely.