INTEREST RATES

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

🛢️ Oil is back in the driver's seat, and California feels it first. Iran rejected the latest peace memo from the Trump administration, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. California refineries are built to process the heavy crude that comes from the Middle East, not the lighter crude out of Texas. When that supply gets squeezed, gas prices climb, inflation expectations climb with them, and mortgage rates follow.

📊 CPI lands Tuesday, and it will not be friendly. The Consumer Price Index is the headline inflation report markets watch most closely. The headline number is expected to jump to 3.6% or 3.7%, up from 3.3% last month, with most of the increase tied to oil. Anything hotter and the rate picture gets uglier in a hurry.

👀 What to watch this week: CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims on Thursday. A hot week of inflation data pushes rates higher from here. A friendly week brings back some of the relief we lost this morning.

🎯 Realtor insight: Conventional ticked up this week, but FHA and VA held flat. For buyers stretching to qualify, that gap matters more than usual right now. Pair it with growing inventory and the negotiating leverage that comes with it, and the right buyer has a real window here, even with conventional rates climbing.