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⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

🌍 What Just Happened

Over the weekend, military action involving Iran triggered a sharp reaction in global markets.

Instead of the typical flight to safety that pushes bond yields lower, we saw the opposite.

📈 The 10 year Treasury moved back above 4 percent
📉 Mortgage bonds sold off
🏠 Rate sheets worsened

The driver was oil.

Crude prices jumped on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil rises quickly, inflation expectations rise with it. Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so investors demanded higher yields.

Higher yields equal higher mortgage rates.

🔍 Why This Is Different

In past geopolitical conflicts, markets often moved into U.S. Treasuries for safety. That usually helped rates improve.

This time, inflation concerns are dominating the narrative.

Two forces are competing:

• Safe-haven buying, which lowers yields
• Inflation fear from higher oil, which raises yields

Right now, inflation fear is winning.

👀 What Realtors Should Watch

This Week Is Jobs Week

Strong labor data
➡ reinforces inflation concerns
➡ keeps pressure on rates

Weaker labor data
➡ helps bonds recover
➡ improves pricing

Spring demand is still present. The key question is whether rates stabilize or continue drifting higher.

🗓 Jobs Week Schedule (Pacific Time)

📊 Wednesday – ADP Private Payrolls
🕔 5:15 AM PT
Early look at private sector job growth.

📉 Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
🕠 5:30 AM PT
Weekly snapshot of unemployment trends.

🔥 Friday – BLS Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
🕠 5:30 AM PT
The big one. Includes:
• Total jobs created
• Unemployment rate
• Wage growth

Friday morning is the market mover. Expect volatility in bonds and rate sheets shortly after release.

🏡 Realtor Insight

Volatility does not mean panic.

Geopolitical spikes historically fade unless the energy supply is materially disrupted long-term.

The next move will likely be determined by:

• Oil behavior
• Jobs data
• Inflation readings

Short-term noise. Long-term trend is still data-driven.