Mortgage Rates 📢 July 28th, 2025

INTEREST RATES

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📈 Rates Edge Up Ahead of Critical Fed & Jobs Week
Mortgage rates moved up slightly this week after several weeks of improvement. The bump is tied to bond market hesitation ahead of two big catalysts: the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the all-important Jobs Report on Friday. While the Fed is not expected to cut rates, their tone on inflation and growth could move markets. A hawkish stance = more upward pressure on rates.

🌐 Tariff Talk Cools… But Inflation Worries Linger
The U.S.-EU trade deal lowered some tensions (and car tariffs), but the inflation impact from new import costs hasn’t fully hit yet. That looming price pressure is still a wildcard, especially with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric (PCE) also releasing this week. If inflation runs hotter than expected, rate improvement could stall—or reverse.

📊 Jobs Data Could Be a Game Changer
This Friday’s Jobs Report could be the most impactful data point of the month. Forecasts suggest slowing job growth and a slight rise in unemployment, but any surprise to the upside could send rates higher quickly. On the flip side, signs of weakness in the labor market could give mortgage rates more breathing room.

🔑 Realtor Insight
Rates are still lower than they were in June, but this recent uptick is a reminder that the market is on edge. Use this moment to check in with fence-sitters and pre-approved buyers—especially those who need to lock in before Friday’s data or before the Fed hints at keeping rates higher for longer.