Mortgage Rates 📢 July 21st, 2025

INTEREST RATES

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📉 Rates Tick Down as Bond Market Holds Its Ground
After weeks of bouncing around, mortgage rates moved slightly lower to start the week. The drop is tied to strength in the bond market—specifically, mortgage-backed securities finding support at key technical levels. This stability has allowed rates to improve modestly, though they’re still sensitive to the next wave of economic news.

📦 Tariff & Inflation Headlines Still a Wildcard
Markets are watching closely as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. New tariffs on EU and Mexican goods could add to inflation pressures—something the bond market hates. If inflation data comes in hotter than expected, or tariff news spooks investors, we could quickly see rates reverse course and head higher again.

📊 Jobs Data Will Be the Next Big Driver
Initial jobless claims and Friday’s Durable Goods Orders could push the Fed’s hand on future policy. If labor market data shows unexpected strength, the bond market may react by pricing in fewer rate cuts—which typically pushes mortgage rates up. On the flip side, signs of a slowdown could give rates more room to fall.

💡 Realtor Insight
This dip in rates may not stick. It’s a great moment to re-engage pre-approved buyers or those on the sidelines. Even a small improvement in rates can boost their buying power—but tariff headlines or inflation data could reverse the trend fast.