Mortgage Rates 📢 July 14th, 2025

INTEREST RATES

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📈 Rates Edge Higher as Inflation Risks Return
After weeks of steady declines, mortgage rates have paused and even nudged up slightly. The 10-Year Treasury yield has bounced back over 4.4% on concerns that this week’s inflation reports could show price pressures re-accelerating—especially with new tariffs on EU and Mexican goods set to kick in August 1. Conventional and Jumbo loan rates rose by about 0.125% over last week, with most products still priced near the 6.6%–7% range. FHA rates held flat, preserving affordability in lower down payment programs.

🔍 Inflation & Tariff Concerns Are the Big Story
Markets are bracing for this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) updates. Early estimates suggest CPI could jump to as high as 2.7–3% annualized, fueled by persistent core inflation and new trade policy uncertainty. If inflation surprises to the upside, it could put renewed upward pressure on mortgage rates and slow recent housing momentum.

📊 Jobs Data and Retail Sales Still Matter
Aside from inflation, jobless claims and retail sales will also guide rates. Any signs of a stronger-than-expected consumer or labor market could confirm the Federal Reserve’s caution about cutting rates soon. For buyers and sellers, this could mean continued rate volatility through summer.

💡 Realtor Insight
Rates remain well below their late 2023 highs but are showing signs of resistance to further improvement. This is a great time to proactively help clients get pre-approved and lock in financing before any inflation or tariff-driven surprises send borrowing costs higher again.