Issue 148 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Well, we’re back to headline-driven rate movements. Day by day, we are living in a “wait, what just got said that caused that??” type of market.

I do not think we will see the end of volatility soon, especially with 2 economic reports scheduled for release late this week and continued conflict in the Middle East.

All in all, glad we have not seen heavier movement like in years past. We can live with what we have now, but it would be nice to get back to mid-February numbers!!

Personal Note:
We took advantage of the great weather and did one of those things that had been on the to-do list for months. Wash and detail the truck.

Kids were excited to help, and I fully took advantage of that enthusiasm, lol.
Child labor is cheap and useful when deployed on the homestead. I highly recommend it, haha.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Find some calm in the storm.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Job shocker.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 10th, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Last week we talked about geopolitical risk pushing rates higher, and we saw another quick spike again this week. The main driver was oil prices jumping toward $120/barrel after tensions escalated in Iran and shipping concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.

Why does that matter for mortgages?

• ⛽ Higher oil = higher inflation expectations

• 📉 Inflation fears push bond prices lower

• 📈 When bonds drop, mortgage rates rise

That initial shock sent stocks and mortgage bonds lower, which is why rates briefly jumped again.

The good news: the market appears to be stabilizing a bit.

Two things helped calm investors:

• 🛢️ Talk of coordinated oil reserve releases from the G7

• 📉 Oil pulling back from peak levels toward ~$100/barrel

When inflation fears cool even slightly, bond markets tend to recover, which is why we’ve seen rates stop climbing for now.

👀 What Realtors Should Watch This Week

Several big economic reports could move rates quickly:

• 📊 Tuesday: ADP Employment + Existing Home Sales

• 📉 Wednesday: CPI (Inflation) + Mortgage Applications

• 🏗️ Thursday: Housing Starts + Jobless Claims

• 💰 Friday: PCE Inflation + GDP + JOLTS

👉 Inflation data (CPI and PCE) will be the biggest drivers. If inflation surprises lower, we could see rates push back toward the sub-6% range again. If inflation runs hot, rates could move higher.

Realtor Insight:
The market is extremely headline-driven right now. Lock opportunities may appear quickly and disappear just as fast, so buyers who are prepped and ready can take advantage when brief rate dips show up.

TECHNICALS
Jobs Report Shocks, Labor Market Losing Steam

The February jobs report was a big miss, and multiple indicators confirm the labor market is cooling. Here's what it means for your buyers and sellers 👇

📉 February Jobs Report Misses Big

The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February versus expectations of +60,000. Unemployment rose to 4.4%.

• 📊 Dec/Jan revisions cut another 69,000 jobs from prior estimates

• 📊 Average job growth over the last 3 months: just 6,000/month

• ⏳ Average duration of unemployment hit 25.7 weeks, highest in 4 years

📌 Realtor Insight: A cooling labor market is exactly what brings rates down. The Fed now has more reason to cut. This is good news for buyer affordability ahead.

🏠 Home Prices Still Climbing

Cotality's latest report shows prices dipped just 0.1% in January but are still up 0.7% year over year. The forecast calls for 4.4% appreciation over the next 12 months.

📌 Realtor Insight: A $500,000 home at 4% appreciation gains $20,000 in one year. Buyers waiting on the sidelines are watching that equity go to someone else.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 📊 CPI inflation report on Wednesday

• 📊 PCE inflation (delayed from shutdown) on Friday

• 🏠 Existing Home Sales on Tuesday

• 🏗️ Home builder confidence Wednesday + new construction Thursday

• 💼 Weekly jobless claims Thursday

Two inflation reports in one week is rare. If both come in tame, expect bonds to rally and rates to improve.