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💸 Bond Market Bloodbath
Mortgage Rates Hit Highest in 2 Months ⬆️ — Jobs Report undermines two months of gains. Lender Panel INVITE.
Glenn Groves
October 08, 2024
In partnership with
Issue 92 - Good Morning and Happy Tuesday.
Well, by now, you’ve heard the news. Rates have popped. The Jobs Report we were all waiting for on Friday came in way higher than expected. In addition, the July and August revisions added another +72k jobs, and the market was SCREAMING as a result.
Translation = Maybe the economy is stronger than expected, and the Fed should NOT cut rates anymore.
Reality = The Fed will likely still cut 25bps, but the language in the press conference will probably be strong, and the markets will react further. We are hoping the market calms down once it realizes it over reacted (still waiting). But that is not until November 7th… so right after the election. How nice.
Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back, 1980 - 20th Century Studios via Tenor
Personal note: Jamie took a really cool mosaic art class over the weekend. So the boys and I spent Saturday hanging out, playing card games, riding bikes and watching Star Wars Episode V.
Jamie’s project - Only needs grout to finish it off. Very cool!
BTW, what the heck is up with this weather?! I know it has been hot in October before, but it’s so muggy!!
INDUSTRY
Join GTG Financial Today
We’re actively searching for a new team member.
Who do you know that would work well at GTG Financial?
I am looking to hire a loan officer assistant for my personal team.
Experience is encouraged but not required.
Roadmap to becoming an originating loan officer if you are interested. We’re wholesale brokers primarily dealing with A paper clients. Cross-training in processing is available.
Full-time, health care, 401k match, in-office position in Santa Rosa. Team bonus structure.
You must be able to speak “gif” via team chats and endure movie quotes and endless sports references. You cannot be allergic to technology.
Moneyball, 2011 - Columbia Pictures via Tenor
Do you have a college-age kid who might be interested in mortgage finance?
Do you know someone working at a boring lender looking for a fun work environment where they can learn and thrive?
Are you thinking of moving to the “Dark side” yourself?
Reply, and let’s have a conversation!
INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 October 8th, 2024
10-Year-Treasury 30-Day Snapshot
Product | Rate / APR | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
⬆️ Conv. | 6.625% / 6.641% | +.500% |
⬆️ Conv. HB | 6.999% / 7.001% | +.500% |
⬆️ JUMBO | 7.125% / 7.134% | +.750% |
⬆️ FHA 3.5% DP | 5.750% / 6.672% | +.500% |
⬆️ VA 0% DP | 5.750% / 5.961% | +.250% |
Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
📊 BLS Jobs Report SURPRISE:
September Jobs Created: 254,000 jobs
Expectations: Only 140,000 jobs were expected
Upward Revisions for Previous Months:
August: Revised up by 17,000 jobs to 159,000
July: Revised up by 55,000 jobs to 144,000
Total Revision Increase: Combined upward revision of +72,000 jobs for July and August.
The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013 - Paramount Pictures via Tenor
Bottom Line: The Jobs report numbers signal the markets that the economy is more robust than expected. The markets are reading this as a STOP sign for the Fed to keep cutting rates for fear of inflation returning.
We are hoping this is a knee-jerk reaction and rates calm down. Revisions for these September numbers are not expected for several months.
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TECHNICALS
Jobs Ruin Rates
Jobs (real or not) wreck the bond market
📊 September Job Growth: Real Estate Impact Summary
Job growth was stronger than expected in September, with unemployment dropping. Key insights for your clients:
🔹 Jobs Surprise: 254,000 jobs added, unemployment down to 4.1%. Boosts buyer confidence, but potential rate pressure.
🔹 Private Sector Growth: 143,000 jobs added. Small businesses struggling, wages moderating. Slower wage growth helps inflation, but fewer small biz jobs may limit local buyers.
🔹 Job Openings Up: 8M job openings, but lower hiring rate. Remote work inflates listings. Labor market might be softer than it seems.
🔹 Gig Economy Impact: Slight rise in jobless claims; gig work may reduce filings. Elevated continuing claims suggest market uncertainty.
🔹 Home Prices: Prices down 0.1% in August, but up 3.9% annually. Homeownership remains a solid wealth builder.
🔍 This Week: Watch for inflation data, jobless claims, and bond auctions affecting rates.
📉 Technical Picture: Mortgage rates may rise further; consider locking in rates now.
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