Issue 123 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

It was a short trading week with an early market close on Thursday and everyone off Friday for the 4th of July, but the latest labor market reports still packed a punch.

On the surface, June looked strong with more jobs added than expected. Dig a little deeper though, and you’ll see signs of a cooling trend, especially in private sector hiring and in the rising number of people staying on unemployment.

This push and pull is exactly why the Fed is keeping rates steady for now as they wait to see which way the economy tips. In the meantime, buyers and sellers are stuck navigating an unpredictable rate environment.

Personal Note:
A classic 4th of July last week. Spent the day with just our family. Started off with a morning kayak session on our small local Lake Ralphine, at Howarth Park.

Had a picnic lunch at the park. Went home to regroup and then rode bikes to Baskin-Robbins to burn some old gift certificates.

Went home and had BBQ’d up some hot dogs for dinner.

We then loaded the back of the truck with pillows and blankets to go find a great spot to watch the fairgrounds fireworks show. Ended up standing on Farmers Lane with about 50 other people enjoying the show over some trees and rooftops, lol.

Overall, a great success of a 4th of July, creating core memories for the boys!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Flat Movement After Bond Rally.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Labor Market Mixed Messages

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 July 8th, 2025

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💡 Why This Matters

📈 Rates Stabilize After Recent Rally
After several weeks of steady declines, mortgage rates have paused their slide. Most products held flat compared to last week, with Jumbo loans ticking up by 0.125%, showing that lenders are still cautious in the higher loan amount space. Conventional rates remain around 6.625%, and FHA/VA options are hovering near 6%, maintaining the improved affordability many buyers have recently welcomed.

📊 10-Year Treasury Rebounds
The 10-year Treasury yield found support near 4.2% and bounced higher to around 4.4%. This bounce is key—when Treasury yields rise, mortgage rates often follow. The upward move suggests some resistance to further rate improvement without a strong catalyst like weaker economic data or a flight to safety in bonds.

🗂️ Market Drivers to Watch

🔍 Jobs Reports & Inflation Data
Last week’s softer labor market signals helped rates ease, but this week brings fresh economic reports, including jobless claims and small business optimism. If data comes in stronger than expected, it could pressure rates back up.

💡 Realtor Insight
While rates aren’t dropping further for now, they’re still below recent highs. Use this lull to reconnect with clients who were priced out earlier this year. It’s a smart time to encourage buyers to get fully underwritten and lock in before Treasury yields or fresh economic surprises push costs higher again.

TECHNICALS

Mixed Messages In Labor Market

It was another week of contradictory economic signals—some suggesting strength, others pointing to softening. Here’s what you need to know and why it matters for buyers and sellers:

✅ Headline Jobs Report:

• 147,000 jobs added in June, beating expectations (110,000).

• Unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.1%.

• Most gains came from government hiring (+73,000), especially education.

⚠️ Private Sector Weakness:

• Private employers cut 33,000 jobs—the first decline in over a year.

• Small businesses were hit hardest.

• Professional/business services and education/health lost the most positions.

📊 Job Openings & Claims:

• Job openings rose to 7.77 million but remain well below 2022 peaks.

• The openings-to-unemployed ratio has fallen to 1:1, signaling less competition for talent.

• Continuing unemployment claims are near 2 million, showing more people are staying unemployed longer.

💵 Wages:

• Pay growth is still solid, with job changers seeing nearly +7% annual increases.

🎯 What This Means for Rates and Real Estate:
The strong headline job numbers are giving the Fed reasons to keep rates higher for longer, while underlying softness is emerging as businesses grow cautious about hiring. This mixed picture creates uncertainty about when mortgage rates could fall.

💡 Realtor Insight:
Remind buyers and sellers that while the job market looks steady on paper, the cracks underneath could eventually lead to rate cuts—but probably not right away. Encourage clients to act strategically in case affordability tightens further before it improves.

🔍 What to Watch This Week

🗓️ Key Events:

• Wednesday: Fed meeting minutes release—watch for clues on rate cut timing.

• Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims.

• Treasury auctions mid-week could impact mortgage bond demand and rates.