Issue 110 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Interest rate markets continue to hold steady. We are seeing an uptick in applications as we approach the classic Spring buyers market… now if we can just get the weather to cooperate, we should be in business!

Personal Note:

The kids are on Spring Break from school. We pushed the limits of a “day trip” and drove 2 hours North to Gulala in North Sonoma County to attempt whale watching. 2 hours might not seem that long, but when it’s each way in a truck… it is taxing on the Pacific Coast Highway, lol.

Grayson and Jamie claim to have seen a spout of water shoot up. JJ and I didn’t see it. We all got to see a few sea lions playing in the surf while looking for food.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Not a whole lot of movement.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Inflation cooling.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 18th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Rates: Interest rate movement has flat-lined. The good news is that we are sitting solidly in the mid to high 6’s. This is not a bad place to be as we enter the Spring buying season.

TECHNICALS
Inflation Cooling, Job Market Stumbles

Inflation cooled more than anticipated in February, but what does this really mean for your buyers and sellers? Here's your quick and easy summary:

🛒 Consumer Inflation Eases Slightly

• Headline CPI rose just 0.2% month-over-month, now at 2.8% year-over-year, down from 3%.

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.2%, down to 3.1% annually from 3.3%.

• 🏠 Shelter costs still significantly impact inflation (44% of core CPI), but February’s shelter cost increases slowed. Expect further easing as CPI catches up to current rental market data.

📊 Wholesale Inflation (PPI) Stabilizes

• Overall PPI unchanged month-over-month; year-over-year down from 3.7% to 3.2%.

• Core PPI slipped 0.1%, falling annually from 3.8% to 3.4%.

• ⚠️ Watch out: Key areas like healthcare costs rose, potentially impacting future inflation readings (PCE index), which influences mortgage rates.

💼 Mixed Signals in Job Openings

• Job openings rose slightly from 7.5 million to 7.7 million.

• Increases mainly in retail and finance, but sharp declines in professional services and hospitality indicate underlying market weakness.

• 🔍 Bottom Line: Hiring rates remain low, and fewer people feel confident quitting for new roles, signaling a cautious job market ahead.

📌 Continuing Jobless Claims Remain Elevated

• Initial claims steady at 220,000; continuing claims remain high at 1.87 million.

• Suggests job seekers face longer unemployment periods—potentially cooling consumer spending power.

📅 What's Coming Up?

• 🏦 Federal Reserve policy decision this Wednesday (could influence mortgage rates).

• 🏠 Key housing data: builder confidence (Mon), construction data (Tue), Existing Home Sales (Thu).

• 📈 Retail sales (Mon) and Jobless Claims (Thu) data will provide further insight into economic strength.

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