Issue 149 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Markets are still working through a mix of inflation concerns, global tensions, and uncertainty about where the economy heads next. That uncertainty has been keeping pressure on the bond market, which is why mortgage rates are still hovering at elevated levels.

Even though the Fed chose to hold steady again, long-term fixed rates are continuing to react more to market volatility and inflation expectations than to any single Fed decision. When investors are unsure about the outlook, rates tend to stay higher until there is clearer direction.

We break that down further below, but for now the key theme is simple: uncertainty is keeping rates elevated, and that is creating some unexpected strategy opportunities.

Personal Note:
The family took a trip last week to Sedona, AZ, for Spring Break, hence why there was no newsletter last week. Had a great time together, of course, the main attraction for the kids was the hotel pool and hot tub, lol.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - All sectors move up on continued uncertainty in the Middle East.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Fed PAUSE. Puts HELOCs on a pedestal.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 24th, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📉 Markets like the headlines… lenders not convinced yet
Stocks are rallying on optimism that tensions with Iran could ease, but mortgage pricing has not followed yet. Lenders are waiting to see if this sticks before improving rates.

📊 Bonds still cautious
Mortgage bonds are hovering near key technical levels. They’ve improved slightly, but not enough for meaningful rate relief yet.

🛢️ Oil moving lower helps the story
Lower oil typically helps the inflation outlook, which is good for bonds and mortgage rates in the longer term. But markets want confirmation, not just headlines.

🏦 Why rates remain elevated
Lenders price conservatively when volatility is high. With conflicting headlines about negotiations, they are holding margins wider until direction becomes clearer.

👀 What Realtors should watch this week

• Tuesday: ADP Employment Report

• Wednesday: Mortgage Applications

• Thursday: Jobless Claims

Strong labor data could push rates higher again. Softer data could help bonds recover.

Realtor Insight 💡

Even though the news cycle sounds positive, mortgage pricing has not caught up yet. Buyers waiting for an immediate drop may need patience. If tensions truly ease and inflation expectations improve, we could see pricing improve in the coming weeks, but lenders want confirmation first.

For now, we remain in an elevated but potentially improving range.

TECHNICALS
Fed Pauses Again. Why HELOCs Just Got More Competitive

🏦 The Fed paused again
The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the second straight meeting. The Fed is still waiting for clearer direction on inflation, jobs, and global risks before making its next move.

📈 But long-term fixed rates are still moving
Mortgage rates are driven more by the bond market than the Fed directly. Recently, volatility tied to inflation concerns and global conflict has pushed long-term fixed rates higher, even while the Fed stands still.

🔄 Rare shift in loan product competitiveness
Prime-based products like HELOCs are tied to the Prime Rate (currently 6.75%), which typically only moves when the Fed changes policy. Because the Fed paused, prime has remained relatively stable, while fixed-rate pricing has been pushed around by bond market swings. Obviously, individual scenarios will add or subtract from the prime pricing for specific HELOCs.

💡 Why this matters right now
This is one of those rare moments where fixed-rate loans are adjusting quickly, but HELOCs and some ARMs are not moving as much, making them more competitive than usual. When fixed rates rise quickly, prime-based financing can suddenly look like a very efficient option for borrowers with strong equity positions.

⚠️ Important context
HELOCs are still variable-rate loans, so future Fed moves can impact pricing. But in the current environment, prime-based financing is not experiencing the same volatility as long-term fixed rates.

Realtor Insight

🏡 When clients have meaningful equity, it may be worth exploring HELOCs, ARMs, or hybrid structures instead of assuming the 30-year fixed is automatically the best execution in today’s market.