Issue 144 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.
The Fed held rates last week, Trump nominated a new Fed Chair (as expected), and some of that led to a massive sell-off in Silver and Gold. Both had been on a burner for the last 6 months.

The estimates are that 7 TRILLION (with a T) was lost in 1 day last week, lol. Both have since started to recover, but Holy smokes.

Personal Note:
Jamie booked a fun outing called the “Newt Commute” through Sonoma County Regional Parks. We got to preview a future park under development and see one of its major attractions. California Newts!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Slight Bump UP

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Fed holds steady. New Fed Chair Named.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 3rd, 2026

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⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Rates moved higher last week as markets headed into a heavy jobs week.

What’s driving it

• Mortgage bonds sold off as investors positioned ahead of key labor data

• Jobless claims continue to understate weakness by excluding gig workers, self-employed borrowers, and long-term unemployed whose benefits have expired

🏛 Fed backdrop

• Fed Governor Waller says policy remains restrictive

• Inflation excluding tariffs is near the Fed’s 2% target

• Rate cuts remain possible, but markets want confirmation from jobs data

📆 This week

• Friday’s Jobs Report is the primary driver for near-term rate direction

🧠 Realtor insight

• Weaker jobs data supports lower rates

• Strong data keeps upward pressure on rates

TECHNICALS
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Trump Names Chair Pick 🏦

The Fed hit pause at its first meeting of the year, President Donald Trump named his preferred next Fed Chair, and home price data showed buyers are still showing up despite affordability pressure.

Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair 👀

President Trump announced plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, set to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Why this matters:

• 🧭 Warsh previously served on the Fed’s Board from 2006–2011

• 🔥 Historically viewed as an inflation hawk

• 🔄 More recently, he has argued the Fed should move faster on rate cuts

• ⚖️ Signals a potential philosophical shift in future Fed leadership

Realtor Insight:
Markets care less about politics and more about policy direction. A Chair perceived as more rate-cut friendly can influence long-term rate expectations well before any actual changes occur.

Buyer Demand Is Still Supporting Home Prices 🏠

Despite affordability challenges, national home prices remain firm.

Latest data:

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

  • 📉 –0.1% month over month (unadjusted)

  • 📈 +0.4% after seasonal adjustment

  • 📊 +1.4% year over year

• FHFA Home Price Index

  • 📈 +0.6% month over month

  • 📈 +1.9% year over year

What’s driving this:

• 👥 Buyer demand improved as rates eased

• 🧱 Builders remain supply-constrained

• ⏳ New inventory cannot ramp quickly

Realtor Insight:
If rates drift even modestly lower, demand could re-accelerate faster than supply, putting renewed pressure on prices in competitive markets.

Labor and Inflation Check 📊

Labor market:

• 🧾 Initial jobless claims: 209,000

• 🔄 Continuing claims: 1.827 million

• 🛠️ Elevated continuing claims suggest longer job searches and gig-work substitution

Inflation:

• 📦 Producer Prices (PPI):

  • +0.5% month over month

  • +3.0% year over year

• ⚙️ Core PPI driven mainly by machinery and equipment margins

Realtor Insight:
Hot producer inflation keeps pressure on rates, even if consumer inflation cools. The Fed cannot ignore this data.

What to Watch This Week 👀

• 📌 Job Openings (Tuesday)

• 📌 ADP Private Payrolls (Wednesday)

• 📌 Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday)

• 📌 Jobs Report and Unemployment Rate (Friday)

⚠️ Government funding negotiations could delay releases.