💸 Fed Hits Snooze... Again!

Issue 118 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Looks like the Fed hit the snooze button again. They kept the Fed Funds Rate steady, sticking to their 'wait and see' game plan. So what does that mean for mortgage rates?

In short, not much movement right now. Not until we see clear data, like inflation cooling off or job numbers tanking.

Don't expect rates to drop significantly. It's like we're all just waiting for the Fed to make up its mind.

Personal Note:

Saturday, Jamie took me on a surprise e-bike wine tour of one of our favorite regions, Dry Creek, to celebrate my birthday, which was last Thursday, the 8th.

We biked in from downtown Healdsburg and braved the 90-degree weather to try multiple new wineries we haven’t tried before. There were a few winners in there!

Update on the truck saga, it has been fixed! Only took about a month, lol.
Back in action.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Bump back up about .125%

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Fed HOLDS

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 May 13th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

📈 Why Rates Are Moving Up:
Rates increased slightly this week, with most loan types ticking up by about 0.125%. This movement reflects recent optimism in the financial markets following the announcement of resumed US-China trade talks. The temporary suspension of tariffs has led to a rally in stocks and a selloff in bonds, causing bond yields (and mortgage rates) to rise.

🔍 Key Takeaway:
Investors are cautiously optimistic about trade negotiations, but the upcoming inflation reports (CPI and PPI) could shift the outlook. If inflation surprises to the upside, expect more upward pressure on rates.

TECHNICALS
Fed Holds Steady: Is the Economy in a Wait-and-See Mode?

The Federal Reserve maintained its pause on rate cuts, keeping the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. While the decision was expected, it reflects ongoing caution amid trade uncertainties. Let’s break it down:

💼 Key Takeaways from the Fed Meeting:

• 🕰️ Cautious Approach: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" strategy, citing uncertainty around inflation and employment.

• 🌐 Tariff Tension: Trade policies are creating economic risks, prompting the Fed to hold off on changes.

• 📊 Data Dependent: Future decisions hinge on upcoming inflation and job reports.

🏡 Homeownership Remains Strong:

Despite economic uncertainty, home prices continue to climb:

• 📈 Steady Growth: March home prices rose 2.5% annually, with Cotality projecting a 4.9% rise over the next year.

• 💰 Solid Investment: A $500,000 home appreciating at 5% would see a $25,000 increase in one year.

• 🏠 Buyer Tip: Encourage clients to move before prices rise further.

🚪 Job Market Slows Down:

While unemployment claims are low, finding a new job is taking longer:

• ⏳ Longer Unemployment: Median duration increased to 10.4 weeks, reflecting hiring slowdowns.

• 💡 Tough Market: Companies are hesitant to expand amid economic concerns.

• 🔑 Realtor Insight: Be prepared to discuss job stability when advising buyers on mortgage commitments.

📅 What to Watch This Week:

• Tuesday: April Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Home Builder Confidence

• Friday: Housing Starts and Building Permits

🔍 Why It Matters: These reports could influence mortgage rates and buyer sentiment.

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