Issue 150 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Markets are juggling two big stories right now: oil prices moving higher due to the Iran conflict and signs the job market may be starting to cool. Higher oil can push inflation up, which usually pressures mortgage rates. But softer hiring data can help bonds and support lower rates.

The Fed has also hinted they may look past short-term oil spikes, since reacting too aggressively could slow the economy more than intended.

Now everything shifts to Friday’s Jobs Report. If hiring comes in weaker, we could see some improvement in mortgage pricing. If the labor market stays strong, expect rates to remain elevated for now. Everyone is watching closely.

For the moment, lenders are still cautious and waiting for clearer direction.

Personal Note:

You know what is even better than a family trip?

Everyone coming home and getting sick from something we caught on the trip!

Yeah, fun times. Not much else to report on the personal front, except we were all just feeling crummy last week :(

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Mixed bag of rates.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Jobs report on Friday looming large.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 31st, 2026

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⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📈 Rates are still elevated, but the market is trying to improve.
Stocks and mortgage bonds are both bouncing this morning, which is helping pricing stabilize after last week’s volatility.

🛢️ Oil and Middle East headlines are still part of the story.
When oil spikes, markets worry inflation could stay hotter for longer. That tends to pressure rates higher. But if high energy costs start slowing the economy, bonds can improve and rates can ease back down.

📉 Consumer confidence just got weaker.
The latest University of Michigan sentiment data came in soft, and more consumers said they expect unemployment to rise. That matters because weaker confidence and softer labor expectations can be good for bonds.

🏡 What Realtors should know:
The bond market still looks cautious. Lenders are not rushing to price in big improvements yet, but the move higher in rates also looks less convincing than it did late last week.

👀 What to watch this week:
Jobs data will be the big one. If labor numbers come in weaker than expected, that could help mortgage pricing. If they come in hot, rates could push higher again.

Bottom line:
We’re starting the week floating. There is room for improvement, but this market is still headline-driven and quick to reverse.

Realtor Insight

Buyers should not assume last week’s rate spike means the trend is locked in. This is still a market where one or two reports can change the tone fast.

TECHNICALS
Jobs Data Could Decide Rate Direction

Cooling Hiring Trends Start to Matter
A quieter data week left markets focused on geopolitical tension with Iran and swings in oil prices, both of which can influence inflation expectations and bond yields. At the same time, new labor data suggested hiring momentum may be slowing. The big question now is whether Friday’s Jobs Report confirms a cooling trend or shows the economy still running hot.

🧑‍💼 Hiring growth still looks soft

ADP’s latest data showed private employers added about 10,000 jobs per week over the past month. That translates to roughly 40,000 jobs, a relatively slow pace compared to typical expansion periods.

Why this matters:
When hiring slows, markets often expect less inflation pressure ahead. That can help bonds improve, which can eventually help mortgage rates stabilize or move lower.

Realtor Insight:
Buyers may still qualify, but some may move more cautiously if they feel less confident about job stability.

📉 Layoffs remain low, but job searches may be taking longer

Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 210,000, still a low level historically. Continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting people who do lose jobs may be taking longer to find new ones.

Some economists point to continued growth in contract and gig work as one reason layoffs appear low, even as hiring activity cools.

Why this matters:
A slower hiring environment without widespread layoffs can keep the economy stable, but may reduce urgency for buyers who are on the fence.

Realtor Insight:
Expect more deliberate decision-making from buyers who want confidence in both rates and job stability before moving forward.

📅 What to watch this week

Tuesday
• Job Openings (JOLTS)
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday
• Retail Sales

Thursday
• Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday
• Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate)

Why Realtors should care:
The Jobs Report on Friday is the biggest potential rate mover. If hiring shows signs of slowing, bonds could improve and mortgage rates may ease slightly. If job growth surprises stronger, expect rates to stay elevated.