Issue 147 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

If you read last week that “the door is open for buyers,” it was technically accurate for about 5 days.

Then on Saturday, missiles started flying, and we legit thought this would drive rates even further into the 5’s.

Welp, welcome to bizzaro world. Rates spiked. More on that in the rates section of WHY…

Personal Note:
A few weeks ago, we headed out to a pre-planned Sonoma County “Tied Pool” learning experience at Doran Beach. It was cold and raining, but we went! Kids got to learn bout our local tidal animals.

Spent a little while at the beach, because why not. The kid’s got humbled when they challenged their “slow” dad to a 40-yard dash in the sand. Yes, I had to stretch out later. Worth it.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Big Bounce on Iran Strikes

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Home Prices (Nationally) Move Higher

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 3rd, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

🌍 What Just Happened

Over the weekend, military action involving Iran triggered a sharp reaction in global markets.

Instead of the typical flight to safety that pushes bond yields lower, we saw the opposite.

📈 The 10 year Treasury moved back above 4 percent
📉 Mortgage bonds sold off
🏠 Rate sheets worsened

The driver was oil.

Crude prices jumped on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil rises quickly, inflation expectations rise with it. Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so investors demanded higher yields.

Higher yields equal higher mortgage rates.

🔍 Why This Is Different

In past geopolitical conflicts, markets often moved into U.S. Treasuries for safety. That usually helped rates improve.

This time, inflation concerns are dominating the narrative.

Two forces are competing:

• Safe-haven buying, which lowers yields
• Inflation fear from higher oil, which raises yields

Right now, inflation fear is winning.

👀 What Realtors Should Watch

This Week Is Jobs Week

Strong labor data
➡ reinforces inflation concerns
➡ keeps pressure on rates

Weaker labor data
➡ helps bonds recover
➡ improves pricing

Spring demand is still present. The key question is whether rates stabilize or continue drifting higher.

🗓 Jobs Week Schedule (Pacific Time)

📊 Wednesday – ADP Private Payrolls
🕔 5:15 AM PT
Early look at private sector job growth.

📉 Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
🕠 5:30 AM PT
Weekly snapshot of unemployment trends.

🔥 Friday – BLS Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
🕠 5:30 AM PT
The big one. Includes:
• Total jobs created
• Unemployment rate
• Wage growth

Friday morning is the market mover. Expect volatility in bonds and rate sheets shortly after release.

🏡 Realtor Insight

Volatility does not mean panic.

Geopolitical spikes historically fade unless the energy supply is materially disrupted long-term.

The next move will likely be determined by:

• Oil behavior
• Jobs data
• Inflation readings

Short-term noise. Long-term trend is still data-driven.

TECHNICALS
Home Prices Climb, Inflation Stays Sticky

Home prices continue to rise, wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected, and the labor market is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

Here's what actually matters for your buyers and sellers 👇

📈 Home Prices Keep Moving Higher

Two key reports confirmed that home values are still trending up.

• 📊 Case-Shiller Index: -0.3% on the surface from Nov to Dec, but +0.4% after seasonal adjustment. Up 1.3% year over year.

• 📊 FHFA Index: +0.1% in December, the 11th straight monthly gain. Up 1.8% year over year.

• 📈 Fannie Mae now projects 15% cumulative price growth over the next five years.

  

📌 Realtor Insight: Waiting has a real cost. Prices are not pulling back, and if rates improve, competition will only increase.

🔥 Wholesale Inflation Ran Hot

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above expectations.

• 📊 Headline PPI: +0.5% for the month, 2.9% annually

• 📊 Core PPI: +0.8% for the month, 3.6% annually

  Sticky wholesale inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to stay cautious with rate cuts.

  📌 Realtor Insight: Hotter inflation makes it harder for rates to drop meaningfully. Help clients plan around current rates rather than waiting for a big move down.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 📋 ADP private payroll figures on Wednesday

• 💼 Weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday

• 📊 Friday's jobs report: non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth

Jobs data is the main event. If hiring comes in softer, bonds could rally and push rates lower.