Issue 113 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Straight to the point. The hope of the stock market rout leading to lower rates evaporated late Friday and is now totally erased heading into Tuesday morning.

The Dow is rallying here on Tuesday, which is only adding fuel to the bond market being hurt. Look at that 10-year bounce:

All in all, everything is going to be okay. Rates are elevated from the beginning of last week. It may seem like more of a whiplash because of the bond movement we experienced, but the window was so short of taking advantage of the dip that most borrowers were not in position anyway.

Stay the course and realize that as of today, we’re basically back to the status quo of where rates have been hovering for months.

Personal Note:

Some unexpected excitement on Sunday. Grayson and I were running some errands when all of a sudden, headed on 101 North we had the check engine light come on, the engine started to sputter, and then died. We rolled to a stop just before the Hwy 12 / 101 interchange. Thankfully, we had enough momentum to get us to a pullout.

Suspect the fuel pump… and it just happens I got a recall notice for that a few days prior, lol. So, odds are pretty good, but we’ll see.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Jumping

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Tariffs and jobs fuel last week’s bond rally.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 8th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

We're still in a volatile spot. The 10-year is bumping up against 4.12%, and Mortgage Bonds just dropped to their next support level around 99.91. That’s putting upward pressure on rates again.

Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard made waves this morning saying the Fed won’t even think about cutting rates until inflation comes down meaningfully — and the market didn’t love that.

We’ve got CPI data hitting Thursday. It’s expected to show a slight decline in inflation, which is usually rate-friendly, but keep in mind: this is old data from February, before the tariffs hit. So even if it's good, the market might shrug it off.

🎯 Bottom line: Expect some choppy rate movement this week. If you're coaching buyers, remind them that rates could move quickly in either direction depending on how the market reacts to Thursday’s report.

TECHNICALS
Tariffs & Jobs Jitters

📉 What Moved Rates & What’s Next

🧨 Tariff Shock: New U.S. import tariffs triggered a market selloff, driving investors into bonds and helping mortgage rates improve (at least last week).

👷‍♂️ Jobs Data Surprise: March job gains beat expectations, but signs of weakness—like rising continuing claims and slower wage growth—fueled bond buying.

📊 What to Watch This Week:

• Wednesday: Fed meeting minutes 🧾

• Thursday: March Consumer Price Index (CPI) 🛒

• Friday: Producer Price Index (PPI) 🏭

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