Issue 116 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

We’ve got a big week ahead.

There’s a lot of important data coming out, home prices, pending sales, inflation numbers, GDP, and jobs reports, and any of it could move rates.

If you’re working with buyers, this is one of those weeks where timing matters.

Rates could shift quickly depending on how these reports land, and the window for a better deal might not stay open for long.

Personal Note:

The weather was pretty meh this weekend. Just in time for it to be in the low 70’s, sunny and clear for the rest of the work week, lol.

Not much happened this past weekend. My truck, which those of you saw broke down in issue 113 is STILL in the shop. The good news it is all covered under a recall warranty, but it has been weird being kinda stuck.

I have been working from home for the last 3 weeks. A double-edged sword, but I'm glad I have a fully functioning home office that matches what I have at the normal office.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Small decline as markets look ahead to upcoming reports.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Mixed March Sales Stats.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 29th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

📉 Why Rates Are Holding Steady:
Rates are stuck in a tight range because the market is waiting for big economic reports this week — especially GDP and jobs data. If growth and employment show more weakness, rates could finally move lower. Until then, traders are cautious.

📅 Key Reports Moving Rates This Week:

• 📈 Tuesday:

  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index

  • FHFA Home Price Index

  • JOLTS (Job Openings)

• 📊 Wednesday:

  • Mortgage Applications

  • Q1 GDP Report (big one!)

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation Report

  • Pending Home Sales

• 📉 Thursday:

  • Initial Jobless Claims

• 🧑‍💼 Friday:

  • BLS Jobs Report (big one!)

TECHNICALS
March Home Sales: Mixed but Encouraging

Home sales were a mixed bag 📦, but low inventory and solid demand still favor price growth. Here's the quick hit:

🏡 Existing Sales Dip

• Sales fell 5.9% 📉 — bigger drop than expected.

• Inventory rose but remains far below normal.

• Bottom line: Tight supply = strong price support.

🏠 New Home Sales Rise

• New construction contracts jumped 7.4% 🚀.

• Median price dip tied to more affordable Southern sales — not falling values.

• Bottom line: Builders are filling the gap, but supply is still tight.

🌎 Fed Reports Business Caution

• Trade worries are everywhere 🌫️.

• Hiring slowed, spending softened.

• Bottom line: Uncertainty could keep rates steady or lower.

🛠️ Jobless Claims Edge Up

• Unemployment filings rose slightly, but hiring remains cautious.

🔭 Watch This Week

• 🏡 Home price reports (Tuesday)

• ✍️ Pending Sales + Inflation data (Wednesday)

• 📊 GDP and Jobs Reports (Wednesday–Friday)

👉 Heads up: Big data week = potential rate swings! 📉📈

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