💸 A Week For The History Books

Issue 114 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Last week was nothing short of historic. We saw market volatility that hasn’t been witnessed in decades — and as professionals who live and breathe real estate, it’s important we stay on top of what this means for our clients.

📉 On Monday, the week kicked off with chaos.

The Dow plunged intraday by over 2,500 points following news of sweeping new tariffs — including a 125% duty on Chinese imports. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked as well, jumping from 4.01% to over 4.3% in just two sessions as investors braced for a new wave of inflation.

📈 But then came the snapback of all snapbacks.

On Wednesday, April 9, the Dow logged a record-breaking rally, surging nearly 3,000 points in a single day — the biggest one-day point gain in history. This came after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries, offering markets a sliver of relief. Just like that, $4 trillion in market value was added in minutes. Total whiplash.

📊 By week’s end, the 10-year Treasury had risen to 4.48% — its largest weekly jump since 2001. So while the stock market ended on a high note, bonds (and mortgage rates) took a beating.

As chaotic as all this sounds, your buyers and sellers aren’t following this in real-time. That’s where you come in. Use this volatility to highlight the stability of the housing market and the long-term benefit of owning real assets. Rates are still bouncing, but homes are still appreciating — and for most people, that’s the bigger picture.

Personal Note:

I took half a day off Thursday for a team outing at Dry Creek Valley in Healdsburg. We have a Realtor team we work with that has a listing coming up in the area, so we needed to do some important research… for the listing, of course.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Up over the last week, starting a small easing yesterday.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Inflation down but tariffs steal the show.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 15th, 2025

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

📉 Why Rates Didn’t Improve (Even as Stocks Dropped)

Even though the stock market had a rough week, mortgage rates didn’t improve—here’s why:

🔍 Investors aren’t rushing into bonds like they normally would when stocks fall. Janet Yellen noted that investors are starting to shun dollar-based assets, and that shift is keeping pressure on rates.

📉 Yields moved higher briefly and held there, despite weaker economic signals. A strong 10-year Treasury auction (with record foreign demand) helped stabilize things, but not enough to push rates meaningfully lower.

🧱 Bottom line: Rates stayed sticky because bond demand wasn’t strong enough to offset concerns about the weakening dollar and shifting global confidence in U.S. assets.

TECHNICALS
Inflation Cools, But Tariffs Steal the Spotlight

📉 Consumer Prices Down, But Not Driving Rates Lower
Inflation came in cooler than expected in March:

• 🛢️ Gas prices dropped sharply, pulling headline CPI down to 2.4% annually

• 🏠 Core inflation also dipped to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021

• 🛏️ Shelter still makes up 35-44% of CPI, but “lodging away from home” pulled that number lower this time

👉 Normally, this kind of inflation report would help mortgage rates improve. But that’s not happening — new tariffs and market volatility are the main story now, and they’re keeping pressure on rates.

📦 Wholesale Prices Echo the Trend

• 🏭 PPI dropped 0.4%, with the annual rate easing to 2.7%

• 📉 Core PPI (excluding food & energy) also declined

• ✈️ Travel, portfolio management, and healthcare costs all cooled

💡 Why this matters: These wholesale numbers feed into the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (PCE), which could also come in cooler on April 30. But unless tariff talk settles, don't expect that to move the needle much on rates.

🔭 What to Watch This Week

📊 Wednesday

🧱 Homebuilder Confidence report
🛍️ Retail Sales numbers

🏗️ Thursday

🔨 New Construction Data
📉 Weekly Jobless Claims

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