Issue 145 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Bonds are already leaning toward lower yields, and the upcoming jobs report and CPI will either validate that move or pause it. If labor and inflation continue to cool, rates are teed up for a potential move downward later this week.

Personal Note:
Jamie and I are headed out for a car rally early Saturday morning, the 14th. Yes, she actually enjoys these things haha. Pictures next week.

DO NOT FORGET that Saturday is Valentine’s Day, don’t be that spouse / significant other who totally blanks and doesn’t make an attempt.

Guys - Flowers and/or chocolate, classic.
Ladies - Bring home your spouse’s favorite 6-pack, it’s basically the same as flowers.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Hold from last week, but we bet there will be a drop later this week.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Labor market losing steam.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 10th, 2026

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Mortgage rates are starting the week basically unchanged.
Despite a choppy bond market last week, we ended up right back to even compared to last Monday.

Stocks and mortgage bonds are slightly lower this morning, but pricing is steady because the bond market is waiting on major data.

⏳ Why This Week Matters

This is a high-impact week for rates.

• 🗓 Wednesday: Delayed January Jobs Report

• 🗓 Friday: CPI Inflation Report

What the Market Is Watching

• Jobs expected around 70,000

• Unemployment expected near 4.4%

• CPI expected to cool slightly, especially Core inflation

👉 Softer jobs or cooler inflation = bond-friendly = better rates.

🏠 Refinance Watch

• ~1.3M loans sit between 6.875%–7.00%

• A move toward 6% could unlock millions of refinance opportunities

• These windows tend to be brief

📌 Realtor Insight

Rates are flat for now, but this week decides the direction.
Wednesday and Friday matter, and a soft CPI could quickly shift buyer momentum.

TECHNICALS
Labor Market Loses Momentum

The labor market is clearly cooling, while housing continues to show resilience. Here are the pieces that matter most for rates and real estate.

⏱️ Government Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

• The January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed due to the shutdown

• New release date is February 11, pushing market clarity out another week

Why this matters: Markets hate uncertainty. Delays often increase short-term volatility in bonds and mortgage rates.

📉 Private Payroll Growth Stalls

• ADP reported only 22,000 jobs added in January

• Expectations were closer to 48,000

• Small businesses were flat

• Medium-sized firms added jobs

• Large employers cut 18,000 positions

Wages:

• Job switchers saw pay up 6.4% YoY

• Workers staying put saw 4.5% YoY

Big picture:

• 2025 job growth totaled 398,000, down sharply from 771,000 in 2024

• Average monthly job growth in 2025 was roughly 33,000

Why this matters: Slower hiring reduces inflation pressure and supports lower long-term rates.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday: January Jobs Report from the BLS

• Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Tuesday: Retail Sales

• Thursday: Existing Home Sales and weekly jobless claims

Market focus: Jobs and inflation data will drive bond direction and rate movement.