Issue 151 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

There's a lot pulling at the market right now, and none of it is simple. Tariffs are rattling stocks, oil is moving on every Iran headline, and the jobs report last Friday came in way hotter than anyone expected. On the surface it looks like a strong economy. Dig a little deeper and the story gets messier.

Here's the thing about that jobs number. A big chunk of it wasn't new hiring. It was healthcare workers coming back from a strike. Strip that out and the picture looks a lot more like the slowdown we've been watching build for months. We'll get into it below.

Meanwhile, the market is holding its breath waiting on what happens with Iran today. Oil moves, inflation moves, rates move. That's the chain. And it's been the chain all year.

Friday's inflation report is the number that actually matters this week. If it comes in soft, we could see some real movement on rates. If it doesn't, we stay in this elevated range a while longer.

As always, below is everything you need to know to have the right conversations with your clients this week.

Personal Note:
Great weekend, enjoying the sunny weather. While over at my parents for Easter, my dad and I wanted to make sure his 1965 Convertable Bug was ready for the aircooled rally we are going on next weekend… and as I drove the car I said, “How do you not hear that metal on metal sound” To which my dad shrugged and said, “I’m old and can’t hear anything…” haha.

Repair crew engage! Looks like we have a rear wheel bearing to pull and replace before the rally Saturday morning, so this should be a fun after-hours project for the boys to learn on this week! Parts are on order!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Cautiously Optimistic

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Splash Headline On Jobs, Not What It Seems

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 April 7th, 2026

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⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Rates improved slightly to start the week, but lenders are still cautious. Markets are watching the Iran situation closely because anything that pushes oil prices higher can also push inflation higher… and that usually keeps mortgage rates elevated.

Right now, bonds are holding a narrow range. If things calm down globally, we could see a little improvement. If tensions increase, rates could move back up quickly.

What Realtors should know

• 📉 Small improvement in rates this week

• 🌍 Iran conflict is keeping markets on edge

• ⛽ Higher oil = inflation risk = pressure on rates

• ⚠️ Lenders are not fully pricing in good news yet

What to watch this week

• Fri: CPI inflation report (big one)

Realtor Insight: Rates are a little better, but still sensitive to headlines. Expect some volatility this week.

TECHNICALS
Jobs Look Strong, But The Story Isn’t That Simple

Last Friday's jobs report showed 178,000 jobs added in March -- nearly three times what economists expected. On the surface, it looks like a booming economy.

But here's what didn't make the headlines.

The Numbers Aren't Always What They Seem

• 📊 178,000 jobs added (expected only 57,000)

• 📉 Unemployment improved to 4.3%

A big chunk of those gains -- 76,000 -- came from healthcare workers returning after a strike. Those aren't new jobs. That's people going back to work they already had.

A separate private payroll report showed only 62,000 jobs added for the same month. That's a massive gap.

And every month, the government quietly revises the previous numbers. February's report originally showed a loss of 92,000 jobs -- this month it was revised to a loss of 133,000. The real four-month average? About 47,000 jobs per month.

Last fall, the government revised an entire year of jobs data and found that nearly 1 million jobs that were reported never actually existed.

What This Means for Mortgage Rates

• 📈 Strong job headlines keep pressure on rates

• ✅ Wage growth slowed -- a quiet win for inflation

Slower wage growth matters because rising wages fuel inflation, and inflation is what drives mortgage rates.

The Bottom Line

The trend shows a labor market that's been cooling for months, even if the headlines don't reflect it. If that continues, the Fed eventually gets room to act -- and mortgage rates follow.

👀 Watch Friday's inflation report. That number matters more than anything in the jobs data.